Misunderstanding of Probabilities

Misunderstandingof probabilitiesalso leads to non rational decisions. Let's take an example of a departure instructor, with two students. One of the students makes a very poor landing. The instructors punish the student and intimidate him with rescheduling if he "doesn't get his act together." On the next journey, this student does much better. The second student lands absolutely on her first attempt. The instructor praises her and holds her up as an example to the class, until now, on the next time around, her hallway is much worse. The instructor then, from the evidence, assumes that admire makes people lazy: they don't try as hard, and punishment and threats are more effectual in training pilots. What this trainer is forgetting is that he is basing all his assumptions on a sample of just one flight-and that generally, performance "revert to the mean": on regular, I may have a routine of, say, 6/10. I may have a "lucky" day-where I perform at 9/10-but this doesn't mean that 9/10 is now my standard presentation. My next presentation is far more likely to be closer to 6/10 than 9/10, whatever the trainer does. The only thing the instructor can do is train me so that, over time, my average presentation comes up.