参考号：EM13341421

显示所有计算以支持您的答案。将所有概率计算舍入到小数小数位。

一群医护人员是公司的一员nsidering opening his own private medical practice. He estimates that if demand for his services is high he could realise a profit of $500,000. If demand is low he could lose $200,000.

（a）如果医生遵循后悔的标准，他该怎么办？

His best guess is that there is a 50-50 chance that the practice would be successful.

（b）如果他遵循EMV标准，该怎么办？

(c) What is the expected value of perfect information?

A market research firm offers to perform a study of the market for a fee of $25,000. Their past experience enables them to make the following claims:

他们有90％的机会成功地预测一个有利的市场（即需求很高），并且有80％的机会成功预测了一个不利的市场。

（d）使用市场研究经验，计算出对市场有利市场和不利市场的预测，需求的修订概率。

（e）基于这些修订的概率，医生应该做什么？通过EVSI和ENGSI计算支持您的答案。

(f) Tversky and Kahneman describe three types of heuristics that people use in judgments under uncertainty. What do they mean by the term heuristics? Briefly describe the ones that they mention. Give one example from your own experience of a bias that might result from each of these heuristics.