将您的复杂问题变成机会的策略

组织和个人每天都会面临各种问题。几个问题是我们对我们面临的情况的行动或反应的直接后果。当我们无法探索问题的差异也是问题的复杂性时,我们的反应也不那么灵活,也不是应有的。当今的系统是不确定的,挥发性,模棱两可的,复杂的复杂动态也超出了我们的控制。因此,做出正确的决策或最佳做出反应比以前更具挑战性。

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It is not very difficult to be a decision-maker - we all make decisions every day. Tricky part is to make right decision. As we have bounded rationality which means that while we are rational beings our rationality is limited. We do not have all information also cannot observe everything that makes it more difficult to make right decisions. Also, speed of execution is increasing constantly as well as markets also systems respond almost immediately which makes decision-making challenging - even perilous. Nevertheless, as politicians have also learned, this is not end of world. We can still control also predict some factors also make good decisions.

在当今的世界中,相信单一效果会导致给定的问题非常乐观。更令人不安的是假设解决此效果将解决问题。尽管我们知道存在不同程度的复杂程度,但不同的知识深度对于理解问题或确定机会至关重要,我们认为问题只有一个原因。我们经常听到,如果某事太简单,也太好了,以至于无法真实。确切地!

如果没有这种情况,那很容易回答以下问题:发生了什么?为什么我们找不到持久的解决方案?为什么许多历史公司,国家的骄傲,破产?为什么国家仍然失败?

因此,始终确定问题,定义问题的界限也很重要,以分析未来的路径也会影响。最肯定的是,系统的历史之间存在关系,其当前状态也是其未来状态,但这并不意味着在历史上不同时间可以将相同的解决方案应用于相同的问题。此外,解决方案通常取决于世界各地的变化。因此,我们应该每次为每个问题构建量身定制的解决方案。

以下是指导决策者的步骤,他们还可以帮助每个人将最复杂的问题转化为机会。

1. Identify causes also effects of problem across social, economic also environmental dimensions:

系统的特征是跨部门内部的反馈,这些扇区可能会产生协同作用或副作用。因此,应仔细分析所有这些不同的维度。

Collapse of Lehman Brothers was first event to focus world's attention on financial crisis. But it did not provide decision-makers with enough information about real cause of financial crisis. It was just a symptom, not cause. It was just one event in growing concerns about banking system's stability, slowdown of housing market also economies as a whole. These trends all provided valuable information about system's previous direction.

2. Use a multi stakeholder approach:

考虑到各种观点,还可以在分析中纳入尽可能多的知识。解决复杂性要求参与者(公共,私人,民间社会)在不同部门(经济,社会,环境),水平(国际,国家,地区)的合作。只有多样性才能解决复杂的问题,例如全球变暖或失业。每个利益相关者都将不同的(通常是独特的)资产带到表中。例如,公司具有财务手段,而非政府组织也具有与志愿者合作的本地知识。

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多种观点重要性的一个例子也是对业务发展的想法是Procter&Gamble(宝洁)的成功,其开放创新计划Connect +开发。它由一个互联网平台组成,公司还可以在其中企业家提出创新的业务解决方案来满足宝洁的需求。这种开放方法为P&G提供了一系列选项。然后,它选择了最有价值的选项,还可以与提出的人或组织合作开发它们。

3. Evaluate impact across sectors also find a balanced strategy:

评估跨部门的影响还找到了一种平衡的策略来提高整个系统的性能,而不是以牺牲其他系统为代价的某些领域。

4.评估参与者的影响还找到了包容性策略:

评估各个参与者的影响还找到了一种包容性策略,该策略将始终如一地分配成本,还可以在系统中的关键参与者之间平等分配福利。

UNDP Guyana Low Carbon Emission approaches developed by a multi stakeholder steering committee, is one of the example. Steering committee was composed of agents from different levels, sectors also interests - including World Wildlife Fund, ministry of agriculture, Forest Producers Association also indigenous group associations. Range of actors also inclusive aspect to committee improved decision-making also made it easier to tackle local issues.

5. Think long term also prioritize resilience:

Success often relies on resilience in face of unforeseen events also a focus on increasing a system's capacity to absorb also adapts to change, with clear, long-term goals.

Here at World Economic Forum, we often use scenarios to provide insight into future of a specific sector or a country also determines strategies according to these insights. These scenarios enable relevant actors to set priorities also monitor performance of system. After identifying causes also effects of problem, Forum brings together different stakeholders from around world to discuss driving forces also evaluate their impact.

6. Monitor performance of systems:

To learn about many ways they respond to strategy also policy implementation. It also helps to improve decision-making by incrementally addressing causes of a given system's success or failure.

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